It's a new year and a new decade, which means that everywhere you turn there seem to be people making economic predictions for 2010. As "delegating" responsibility has not worked well in recent history, I'm anticipating a trend towards personal responsibility and transparency in key financial areas It seems the consumer got "gamed" pretty badly in the last balloon and collapse. That being said, the key for you and your small business finances will be avoiding personal "bubbles" and "bursts" on a micro level (as it affects your own financial situation).
We can start to do this by pro-actively taking more analytic responsibility as we look at personal and small business financial conditions, projections, assessments and strategies - since the info/data presented can often be manipulative to the general public. People tend to act intuitively and need a better understanding of the logic behind their visceral activities, which would perhaps take some of the mystery out of it and with it the fear.
Here are a few things to consider as you evaluate economic predictions for 2010.
1. Consider who is doing the predicting and what their agenda might be:
All predictions are not equal. Many talking head prognosticators are actively trying to manipulate the market. Whether it is the government or politicians spinning "faketistics" to push forward some political agenda or some commodity investor hyping the upward or downward "prediction" in their commodity position. Just be on the lookout for an "infomercial" posing as a prediction. Use your judgment to determine the neutrality of the predictor.
2. Watch out for the usual suspects making predictions:
Be cautious of historical pitchmen for various commodities and positions, such as perpetual gold bugs, oil commodity speculators, real estate speculators. The press usually goes back to the same talking heads, some good and some not so good. They are popular and have good publicists – however, that does not mean they know what they are talking about, especially when it comes to future activity.
3. Don't follow the trend. Know what you know, know what you do not know.
The surest way to make a small fortune (out of a large one) is to follow investment or financial trends into areas neither you nor the advisor are familiar with. Be cautious of advisors who are always spouting the current trend and conventional wisdom. Specialized financial advisors who have a disinterested business model are best along with relatively simple business models that you can get your head around.
4. Finally, be sure to take a Micro view on predictions.
Does the current trend in unemployment really mean anything to you? Probably not. Take a micro view and make a prediction of the likelihood of you losing your job. How is your company doing? How is the competition doing? How is your specific industry doing? if you current employer or your company is in a stressed industry with diminishing profits and sales you can reasonably predict an economic problem for yourself. Will you be at risk of losing your bank loans or small business funding? So independent research on a micro level in your industry could be a good call. You can ask yourself: Does the commodity price of fuel really matter to you? Probably not. Is gold a proper investment? Not likely.
I'll also be blogging about The Top 10 Things to Consider When Researching 2010 Economic Predictions.
If you would like to know more about how your business can secure the funding in the new year, visit US Capital Partners, Inc. at http://www.uscapitalpartners.net/ or call (415) 882-7160.